Fiat FistsFollow the fiscal flows. Ignore the noise.
Updated October 28, 2026 · Primary sources only · Captions computed, not typed
The flows, this week

Spending is income. Here is how much of it hit the economy.

Net government transfers through October 26, $147.0 bln, up $45.2 bln y-o-y. The y-o-y gap widened by $30.2 bln over the week.

Treasury withdrawals through October 26, $542.1 bln, up $51.1 bln y-o-y. The y-o-y gap widened by $27.7 bln over the week.

Employment and withholding tax deposits through October 26, $243.3 bln, up $29.6 bln y-o-y. The y-o-y gap widened by $7.1 bln over the week. Widest positive gap this fiscal year.

Crude inventories fell 3.1 mln bbls to 412.5 mln bbls. Three weeks down for a drop of 14.8 mln bbls. Lowest level in three months. Down 11.3 mln bbls y-o-y.

Bearish sentiment increased 4.2 percentage points to 45.8%. Second week up for an increase of 6.8 percentage points. Highest level in three weeks. 48% above the historical average.

Fiscal Flows

Daily Treasury Statement: what the government paid out, what it took in, and the gap.

Bank Credit (H.8)

Weekly balance sheets of U.S. commercial banks — the private side of money creation.

Fed Balance Sheet (H.4.1)

Reserves, RRP, TGA and the Fed's holdings — liquidity plumbing.

Oil & Petroleum

EIA weekly inventories, demand, production and trade, plus the rig count.
U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories
412.5 mln bbls
−3.1 mln bbls
Crude inventories recent trend
October 16, 2026
U.S. Gasoline Inventories
205.3 mln bbls
−3.0 mln bbls
Gasoline inventories recent trend
October 16, 2026
U.S. Distillate Fuel Oil Inventories
104.3 mln bbls
+1.7 mln bbls
Distillate inventories recent trend
October 16, 2026
U.S. Gasoline Demand (Product Supplied), 4-Week Average
8.712 mbd
+34k bpd
Gasoline demand recent trend
October 16, 2026
U.S. Distillate Demand (Product Supplied), 4-Week Average
3.913 mbd
−61k bpd
Distillate demand recent trend
October 16, 2026
U.S. Jet Fuel Demand (Product Supplied), 4-Week Average
1.736 mbd
+41k bpd
Jet fuel demand recent trend
October 16, 2026
U.S. Refiner Net Input of Crude Oil, 4-Week Average
16.500 mbd
−41k bpd
Refiner crude inputs recent trend
October 16, 2026
U.S. Finished Motor Gasoline Production, 4-Week Average
9.449 mbd
+40k bpd
Gasoline production recent trend
October 16, 2026
U.S. Distillate Fuel Oil Production, 4-Week Average
5.179 mbd
+18k bpd
Distillate production recent trend
October 16, 2026
U.S. Crude Oil Exports, 4-Week Average
4.087 mbd
+40k bpd
Crude exports recent trend
October 16, 2026
U.S. Petroleum Product Exports, 4-Week Average
7.587 mbd
−116k bpd
Product exports recent trend
October 16, 2026
U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil
13.269 mbd
−410k bpd
U.S. crude production recent trend
October 16, 2026
U.S. Net Exports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, 4-Week Average
4.118 mbd
−22k bpd
Net exports of crude and products recent trend
October 16, 2026
Baker Hughes U.S. Oil Rig Count
460
+1
Oil rigs in operation recent trend
October 23, 2026
Baker Hughes U.S. Natural Gas Rig Count
132
−1
Gas rigs in operation recent trend
October 23, 2026

Sentiment

AAII survey and the put/call ratio — what the crowd says and what it pays for.

Positioning (COT)

Managed-money positions in metals and crude from the CFTC.

Markets

The scoreboard: indices, yields and Brent.

Macro Releases

Inflation, sales and capacity — the data the Fed reacts to.